The hottest monetary policy is generally tightenin

The overall tightening of monetary policy will be strengthened in the second half of the year

the overall tightening of monetary policy will be strengthened in the second half of the year

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in the first half of the year, China's economy grew at a high speed, and the operating situation basically met our previous expectations. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a high speed of 11.5%, a new high in nearly 10 years. At the same time, there were many highlights, such as the improvement of investment and consumption structure and the further improvement of industrial enterprise benefits. Domestic macro economy in the first half of the year

in the first half of the year, China's economy grew at a high speed, and the operation trend basically met our previous expectations. The gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a high speed of 11.5%, hitting a new high in recent 10 years. At the same time, there were many bright spots, such as the improvement of investment and consumption structure and the further improvement of industrial enterprise efficiency

in the first half of the year, the high level of domestic macroeconomic and financial growth accelerated, and the risk of from too fast to overheating is increasing. Therefore, the focus of macro-control in the next step is to curb the momentum of high-level economic and financial growth, effectively prevent economic growth from too fast to overheating, and macro-control will be further strengthened

we predict that China's GDP growth will reach 10.9% this year; The annual growth of urban fixed asset investment will exceed 25%; The annual industrial added value increased by 18%; The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by more than 15%; The annual trade surplus is about 250billion US dollars; CPI rose by 3.2%; The annual RMB loan increment of financial institutions will be close to 3.5 trillion; The appreciation rate of the RMB against the US dollar will be close to 6% for the whole year

in the second half of the year, commercial banks should pay close attention to the trend of current deposits and the rebound of non-performing rate of credit assets that may be caused by economic cycle fluctuations, strengthen asset liability management, improve capital operation income, and strengthen credit management

the domestic macro-economy operated smoothly

the high level of domestic financial growth accelerated

in the first half of this year, China's GDP reached 10676.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the same period of last year, and 0.4 percentage points faster than the whole year of last year and the first quarter of this year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 947billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year; The added value of the secondary industry was 5545.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period last year; The added value of the tertiary industry was 4184.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period last year, and the year-on-year growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than that of the secondary industry, indicating that economic restructuring has improved

(I) the high level of industrial production accelerated, and corporate profits continued to increase

in the first half of the year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 18.5% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than the same period of the previous year, and 1.9 percentage points faster than the whole year of the previous year. This is the first time since 2005 that the cumulative growth rate for five consecutive months has been above 18%. The acceleration of the high level of industrial production is one of the most prominent features of the economic operation in the first half of this year, indicating that the production capacity has begun to be released in a large amount, and the supply is very sufficient

in the first five months of this year, the national industries above Designated Size achieved a profit of 902.6 billion yuan, an increase of 42.1% year-on-year, with a sharp increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year; The comprehensive index of industrial economic benefits was 200.41, an increase of 21.79 points over the same period last year

(II) the growth rate of fixed asset investment fell year-on-year, but the rebound momentum was significant

the total social fixed asset investment in the first half of the year was 5416.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. The growth rate fell by 3.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, but the growth rate accelerated by 2.2 percentage points over the first quarter of this year

although the growth rate of investment fell year-on-year, the rebound trend was obvious. The growth rate of urban fixed asset investment in the first half of the year was 2.2 and 1.4 percentage points higher than that in the whole year of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007 respectively, and the rebound of investment accelerated. This trend is more obvious from the increase of new projects. As of the end of May, there were 74701 new projects, an increase of 7282 year-on-year; The total investment of new projects is planned to be 2790.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. This shows that the investment rebound has entered a new acceleration channel

(III) consumption continues to grow rapidly, and the growth rate of rural consumption still lags behind that of urban consumption. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 4204.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The growth rate hit a new high since 1997, and the growth rate accelerated by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, in sharp contrast to the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment, which fell by 4.6 percentage points, indicating that the investment and consumption structure has improved. From a regional perspective, the growth rate of rural consumption still lags behind that of cities and towns. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of urban consumer goods were 2852.5 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9%. The retail sales of consumer goods at and below the county level were 1351.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3%, and the latter was 1.6 percentage points slower than the former

the main characteristics of consumption growth: first, automobile consumption accelerated significantly, with automobile sales increasing by 36.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating that the upgrading of residents' consumption structure accelerated; Second, the consumption of gold and silver jewelry, grain and oil, meat, poultry and eggs, clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles, building decoration, petroleum products and daily necessities increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rates of the consumption of the above seven categories of goods were 37.5%, 33.2%, 36%, 25%, 41%, 20.8% and 24.6% respectively, indicating that the current consumption growth is well balanced

(IV) the monthly trade surplus surged sharply, and the gap between import and export growth gradually widened

in the first half of the year, the national total import and export value was US $98.93 billion, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, exports amounted to US $546.73 billion, an increase of 27.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points; Imports were $434.2 billion, an increase of 18.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.1 percentage points; The trade surplus reached US $112.5 billion, an increase of 83.1%, accounting for 63.4% of the total trade surplus last year

the trade surplus surged sharply in the second quarter, with monthly trade surpluses of US $16.85 billion, US $22.46 billion and US $26.91 billion respectively

(V) CPI growth continued to accelerate, and PPI growth was relatively stable

in the month, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with monthly growth rates of 2.2%, 2.7%, 3.3%, 3%, 3.4% and 4.4% respectively, accelerating on the basis of the rise since the end of last year

at present, CPI is under great pressure to rise, and structural fluctuations need to be paid close attention to: first, the cumulative increase of 3.2% in the first half of the year has exceeded the annual macro-control target of 3%, the monthly growth rate of CPI has exceeded 3% for four consecutive months, and the monthly growth rate of CPI in June even exceeded 4%; Second, except for food and energy projects, the core consumer price index (core CPI) rose by only 0.9% in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the CPI rose by 3.2%, and the rise in food prices contributed 2.5 percentage points. Therefore, the rise of CPI shows the characteristics of structural fluctuation

in the first half of the year, the producer price index (PPI) of industrial products rose by 2.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year, with monthly increases of 3.3%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.5% respectively, with a relatively mild trend. The price trend in the first half of the year also has two significant characteristics: first, the gap between the increase of PPI and CPI has changed significantly. Second, real estate prices rose

(VI) taking the international advanced level as the benchmark) FDI increased significantly, and the quality of capital introduction improved

according to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce (the data do not include FDI attracted by financial institutions such as banks, insurance and securities), 18683 foreign-invested enterprises were newly approved in the first half of the year, down 5.4% year-on-year; The actual amount of foreign capital used was US $31.889 billion, an increase of 12.17% year-on-year. In June, 3611 foreign-invested enterprises were newly approved, a year-on-year decrease of 11.73%; The actual amount of foreign capital used was US $6.63 billion, an increase of 21.91% year-on-year, a new high this year. The growth rate of actually utilized foreign capital this year has significantly accelerated on the basis of the growth trend at the end of last year, which shows that foreign investors have basically digested the factors of policy changes of "two taxes in one", and pay more attention to China's market and labor advantages. Secondly, while the number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises has decreased, the actual growth of foreign capital has accelerated, indicating that the quality of foreign investment has been significantly improved

macro regulation and control will be further strengthened

the overall economic and financial situation is good

banks need to focus on five aspects

based on the above analysis, we believe that China's economic and financial operation is generally good at present, especially with many bright spots such as the initial effect of economic restructuring, the continued acceleration of consumption growth and the continued improvement of economic benefits, but the high level of economic and financial growth has accelerated, Although the supply of coal, electricity and oil transportation is relatively sufficient, and the price growth other than food prices is still relatively stable, and the economic and financial operation has not yet overheated, the risk of overheating from too fast is increasing. Among them, the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is severe, the high growth rate of industrial production is accelerating, the inflation pressure of goods is increasing, and the credit supply is growing too fast The increasing rebound pressure of fixed asset investment and the problem of excess liquidity are the core issues that deserve close attention:

-- the high growth rate of industrial production has accelerated. In the first quarter, the average growth rate of six industries including steel, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, electric power, petroleum processing and coking, and building materials was 20.6%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industries above designated size. Industrial power consumption also increased by 16.8%, accelerating year-on-year, which led to the weak innovation ability of China's experimental machine industry by 5.5 percentage points. In May, the growth rate of major heavy chemical industries such as chemical industry and ferrous metals was still higher than 20%. In the first six months, the growth rate of 24 of the 39 major industries was faster than that in the first quarter

-- the industrial structure is heavy, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is severe. In 2006, under the strong macro-control, the structural adjustment of China's high energy consuming industries made great progress, but this year, supported by preferential policies such as land, tax and electricity price for the development of high energy consuming industries, the growth of high energy consuming industries rebounded significantly. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of heavy industry continued to be faster than that of light industry. At the same time, the production growth of many high energy consuming industries accelerated, and the export of products increased significantly, especially electrolytic aluminum, alumina, cement and crude steel rebounded significantly, and the problem of energy consumption surge was prominent. According to the calculation of the national development and Reform Commission, in the first quarter of 2007, the added value of six high energy consuming industries, such as steel, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, electric power, petroleum processing and coking, and building materials, accounted for about 33% of industries above Designated Size, electricity consumption accounted for about 64% of industrial electricity consumption, and energy consumption accounted for 70% of national industrial energy consumption

-- the excess liquidity of the banking system has improved, but the excess liquidity caused by the imbalance of international payments has yet to be dredged for a long time, and the hedging pressure of the central bank has increased. Due to the effective regulatory measures of the regulators, the liquidity surplus of the commercial banking system has changed recently. First, the over storage rate of commercial banks is generally downward; Second, the interest rate of the inter-bank capital market has rebounded; Third, some banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, have seen an increase in loan deposit ratio and a shortage of funds. However, on the whole, the excessive growth of trade surplus and the increase in the inflow of overseas funds have led to the excessive release of base currency, and the hedging pressure of the central bank to tighten liquidity has increased

-- inflationary pressure increases. Although there are structural factors in the rapid growth of inflation at present, we believe that inflationary pressure is increasing day by day., Main reasons: first, the continued bumper harvest of domestic grain will lead to the increase of domestic grain prices, which will continue to promote the rise of food prices. At the same time, the possibility of the continuous rise of prices caused by the reduction of meat commodity supply is still large; Second, the domestic factors driven by enterprise costs will become more and more obvious, that is, with the accelerated reform of resource prices, the increase of wage levels, and the increase of environmental protection costs, inflationary pressures will increase; Third, the price increase of primary products such as copper, aluminum and chemical fertilizers in the international market began to rise, especially the price of iron ore and crude oil increased significantly. In view of China's demand for international crude oil and iron