The hottest glass spot market rose rapidly

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The glass spot market is rising rapidly

the development of the glass industry originated in European and American countries. In recent years, China's glass enterprises have expanded rapidly, and their production capacity has been equivalent to that of the United States, Germany and other countries. With the gradual transfer of the international glass industry to China and the improvement of the R & D and production capacity of Chinese local enterprises, China will become one of the most important glass production bases in the world in the next few years

in August, the spot market of flat glass launched a wave of surging upward market from north to south, and the futures price of glass also hit a high in the past four years. However, this rise is more due to the overestimation of the market's expectations for the peak season. At present, traders' inventories have accumulated, production enterprises' delivery has slowed down, and glass futures prices continue to rise under great pressure

Under the expectation of the peak season, the spot market rose one after another

after the stalemate in June and July, the Shahe market began to gradually raise prices. The convening of the glass industry conference in mid August was a catalyst for the market's price sentiment. At present, Shahe glass has increased by 100 yuan/ton month on month, 110 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and even exceeded the price peak of 80 yuan/ton last year; Followed by the East China market, its month on month increase was also 80 yuan/ton. The first price increase in the northern region has received a positive response from the market, and traders have hoarded goods at a good speed, which has boosted the confidence of central and southern China in raising prices. At present, the prices in the two places have increased by an average of 60-80 yuan/ton month on month. At the end of August, the soda ash market generally rose by 100 yuan/ton, raising the glass production cost by about 20 yuan/ton. However, at present, the price of soda ash is 20% lower than the peak at the beginning of the year, but the price of flat glass in all regions has reached a new high in recent years, and the current glass enterprises are relatively profitable

based on the expected valuation preference for the peak season, traders played a promoting role in this round of price increases of production enterprises. The tensile test (stress-strain test) for the price rise of production enterprises is generally to clamp the two ends of the material sample on two clamps with a certain distance between them. The inventory effect is good, and the inventory of Shahe production enterprises fell sharply by 12% from the peak at the end of July. However, only in the end consumption can commodity inventory have a positive impact on prices. At present, traders accumulate more inventory in the early stage of stocking, or affect the purchase speed in the later stage. It is understood that at present, some traders have been selling at a loss, the production and sales of Shahe glass is only 70% to 80%, and the inventory of manufacturers may increase in the later stage

the real estate regulation has been out of touch for a long time, and the supply tends to be loose.

under the pressure of supply side reform, but according to the requirements of the spring, the new production capacity of flat glass has been limited in recent years. So far, only three production lines have been newly built and put into operation this year. In order to win greater profits in the market, the potential capacity of the glass industry is being transformed into actual productivity. Since this year, nine production lines have resumed production, with a net increase in capacity of 770 tons/day. Compared with the same period last year, the net capacity has increased by 4200 tons/day, equivalent to about five production lines with a daily melting capacity of 800 tons. This supply increase is still considerable. It is reported that in September, both the third line of Shahe Great Wall with a capacity of 500 tons and the second line of Fuyao Shuangliao with a capacity of 600 tons have plans to resume production, and the supply of light-weight solutions for modern removal tools will be increased again

from January to July 2017, the output of flat glass was 479.01 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. In the same period, the cumulative year-on-year growth of the completed area of real estate was only 2.4%, and the output growth rate was significantly higher than the demand growth rate. In the context of the cooling of real estate around the country, the tightening of bank loans and the increase of interest rates, the new construction and sales data of real estate are showing a downward trend. The demand of the real estate market should not be overly optimistic, and the supply and demand pattern of building glass will gradually become loose

to sum up, the current price rise in the spot market is nearing the end. Under the background of real estate regulation, the ex warehouse speed of glass production enterprises in the later stage needs to be tested. The current price has reflected the expectations of the peak season. The future flat glass industry may enter the de profit stage, and it is difficult for the futures price to continue to rise. It is recommended to sell short when the price is high

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